Common Supply drop or Rare Supply Drop

Many of you have been asking which route to take on spending your crypto keys. Its been my personal experience to go for the common supply drop.
I've bought 5 Common Supply drops, and received rare/epic loot from 3 of those 5.

The rare supply drop guarantees you a rare/epic/legendary loot each time. However i've heard its more commonly you only get one and the other two are common.

You are able to by 3:1 using crypto keys on common vs rare.
To me the chances of getting a rare/epic/legendary are better in common supply drops. Because you have more chances.

Why would more rare/epic loot be in supply drop called "common"-- than a drop specifically named "rare".

Makes no sense!

Just based off my personal experience.

I've gotten rare/epic loot all but twice on the common.
But I can buy 3 common at the price of one rare supply drop.

I guess you can guarantee one for 30 or risk it for 10

I'm not implying in anyway that you're wrong, I'm just making note of the lack of logic involved in how they programmed the items to drop.

This would be what we call an anecdotal fallacy. You experienced a small run of 'good luck' where you hit the statistically rare occurrences and drew the connection that buying common supply drops is superior all around.

While I agree common supply drops are better early on (you fill out your 'low end' collection, leaving less garbage variables when you do start purchasing the rare packs) I don't think Rare+ items are as common as you saw.

I've purchased a small amount. Of the 10 or so I've purchased I've received 2 rares, nothing above that. Even if it's more likely to see 1 in 3 Commons drop a rare, the Rare packs still almost definitely have higher potential to drop Epics

Sample size is too small to determine if the odds are illogical or if you just had good luck, but thanks for sharing your experience.

The last supply drop I got had 2 rare Items in it. It was the 30 crypto keys one. so fare I've bought 3 of them and one 10 crypto. I've been getting better items from the 30.

your best route in this game is buy the common ones

from my XP's so far i have opened 3 rares at 30 keys each and gotten all common and the one rare is for a gun ill never play with..

were as i have opened 5 commons at 10 key per and gotten 3 legendary and 1 epic out of it...

Then your experience tends to confirm what Coop is saying Sticky (if I'm reading this correctly).

Yeah common supply drops are the better way to go. Granted all you get from a supply drop is visual (camo,specialist year,emblem logos...)
3 common drops to 1 rare gets you more and you still have a good chance to get rare or better from the 3.

Common supply drops for sure. I played a little advanced Warfare and was not a fan of getting weapon variants. Getting weapon variants was easy for people that paid for them.

i go common I don't see the point of get the rare drops

I'm still yet to get a single Rare from common supply drops.

I got an epic ice camo for my xr2 out of a common drop. In the three that it takes me to buy a rare drop I normally get at least one of the 9 items to be better than common. Most of the time it's 2 or better thought.

Out of 6 commons I received all commons, no rares or better, so back to rare boxes for me.